The 2024 contraction in Milan: the impact of interest rates and the 2025 recovery
Official data, Italian Revenue Agency
The three years 2023-2025 were a particularly significant arc for the residential property market of the city of Milan (Belfiore Code F205). After a 2023 with sustained volumes, 2024 recorded a period of contraction in sales, conditioned by rising credit costs and the tightening of interest rates applied by central banks.
The analysis of the official data of the Italian Revenue Agency on the Normalised Number of Transactions (NTN) shows, however, that this contraction was temporary, giving way in 2025 to a full recovery of the volumes traded.
The key data for the three years in Milan City
| 2023 | 24,847.91 residential sales (NTN) |
| 2024 | 24,002.90 sales (-3.40% year on year, equal to -845 transactions) |
| 2025 | 25,172.96 sales (+4.87% on 2024 and +1.31% on 2023) |
Source: official data, Italian Revenue Agency
The differentiated impact by floor area band
The most interesting element emerging from the analysis concerns the asymmetric impact that rising interest rates had on the different housing types in the municipality of Milan.
The 2024 decline did not affect all floor areas uniformly, but was concentrated mainly in the medium-large purchase bands, typically linked to families taking out mortgages.
Comparative Table by Floor Area Band in Milan (2023 - 2025)
| Floor area band | Sales 2023 | Sales 2024 | Sales 2025 | Change 2023–2024 | Change 2024–2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up to 50 sqm | 5,242.68 | 5,267.12 | 5,715.99 | +0.47% | +8.52% |
| 50 – 85 sqm | 10,829.22 | 10,350.56 | 10,638.00 | -4.42% | +2.78% |
| 85 – 115 sqm | 5,114.72 | 4,720.14 | 5,054.66 | -7.71% | +7.09% |
| 115 – 145 sqm | 1,985.86 | 2,033.05 | 2,006.38 | +2.38% | -1.31% |
| Over 145 sqm | 1,675.43 | 1,632.03 | 1,757.93 | -2.59% | +7.71% |
| TOTAL MILAN | 24,847.91 | 24,002.90 | 25,172.96 | -3.40% | +4.87% |
Source: official data, Italian Revenue Agency
Market dynamics during the credit squeeze
1. The resilience of small sizes (<50 sqm)
Against the general trend, homes up to 50 sqm recorded a positive change in 2024 too (+0.47%), growing from 5,242.68 to 5,267.12 NTN. This segment benefits from a purchase component often supported by own capital or by investors seeking rental yield, proving less sensitive to changes in mortgage rates.
2. The decline of family floor areas (50–115 sqm)
The sharpest contractions of 2024 concerned the band between 85 and 115 sqm (-7.71%) and the one between 50 and 85 sqm (-4.42%). Overall, these two segments lost 873.24 transactions in a single year. These are the housing sizes traditionally intended as a first home for young couples and families, the categories most exposed to mortgage borrowing capacity.
3. The 2025 restart
With the easing of monetary restrictions and the gradual reduction of interest rates from the second half of 2024, the Milan market showed a rapid ability to recover. In 2025 almost all size bands returned to growth, led by small sizes (+8.52%) and 85–115 sqm two-bedroom flats (+7.09%).
Observations on the market structure
- For those analysing purchase demand: The data show how rigid interest rates in 2024 temporarily postponed the purchase decisions of the middle family segment, without eliminating them. The prompt recovery of 2025 indicates high latent demand in the city.
- For those observing the resilience of floor areas: Small homes (<50 sqm) are confirmed as the type with the greatest transactional stability during credit downturns, while medium floor areas (50–115 sqm) are directly affected by swings in bank financing conditions.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
How much did sales fall in Milan in 2024?
In 2024 residential sales in Milan city fell to 24,002.90 NTN, a decline of 3.40% compared with 2023 (845 fewer transactions).
Which floor areas suffered most during the 2024 contraction?
The most penalised band was 85 to 115 sqm (-7.71%), followed by the 50–85 sqm band (-4.42%).
How did the Milan market perform in 2025 after the 2024 decline?
In 2025 the market recorded a strong recovery (+4.87% on 2024), bringing total sales to 25,172.96 NTN, a value also above the 2023 level.