The Outlook for the Lombardy Property Market towards 2026: Stabilising Factors and Local Trajectories
Official data, Italian Revenue Agency
After the strong restart recorded in 2025, which saw the residential market of Lombardy exceed 162,000 sales (162,189.39 NTN - Normalised Number of Transactions), the regional picture looks ahead to 2026 outlining a framework of structural consolidation and territorial rebalancing.
The analysis of the 2023–2025 three-year trend provided by the official data of the Italian Revenue Agency shows how Lombardy overcame the phase of uncertainty linked to the monetary tightening of 2023-2024 (+0.55% between 2023 and 2024), achieving an acceleration of +7.01% year on year in 2025 (+10,630 net transactions in twelve months). The trajectory towards 2026 is expected to be characterised by more selective demand, a strong infrastructure push and the definitive affirmation of the polycentric model.
1. The Macro-Factors of Stabilisation towards 2026
The cross-reading of volume and floor area data for 2023-2025 brings out three major drivers guiding the outlook of the Lombardy market in the short to medium term:
A. Normalisation of the Credit Market
The stabilisation of interest rates on mortgages has reactivated the latent demand of families and young buyers, unlocking purchase decisions postponed during 2024. The first-home segment in the intermediate band (50–115 sqm), which alone represents 61.85% of the entire regional market (100,310.69 NTN in 2025), is confirmed as the main source of liquidity of the system.
B. The Impact of Infrastructure and Major Events
The completion of the main mobility works — with the extension of the metro lines (M4 in Milan and extensions of M1/M2/M3), the strengthening of suburban rail services (SFM) and the infrastructure works connected to the Milano-Cortina 2026 Olympic event — continues to reorganise the geography of values. Hinterland* municipalities and second-ring centres located along the main transport axes benefit from a permanent extension of their catchment area.
C. Reorganisation of Floor Area Needs
The gap between costs per square metre in the metropolitan capital and the spending capacity of resident demand has consolidated the redistribution of floor areas. While Milan city concentrates the majority share of micro-sizes (up to 50 sqm at 22.71% of city sales), the Hinterland and the provincial capitals establish themselves as the markets of choice for two-bedroom flats and large homes (above 85 sqm is concentrated 52.29% of the Hinterland market and over 70% in provinces such as Mantua and Cremona).
2. Summary of the Three-Year Evolution of Sales (2023–2025)
The following table summarises the trend of normalised residential transactions in the 11 Lombardy provinces over 2023–2025, highlighting the different growth speeds of the territory:
| Province | Sales 2023 | Sales 2024 | Sales 2025 | Annual change (2024–2025) | Three-year change (2023–2025) | Trajectory towards 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milan (Province) | 66,876.55 | 66,130.87 | 70,595.78 | +6.75% | +5.56% | Metropolitan consolidation |
| of which Milan city | 24,847.91 | 24,002.90 | 25,172.96 | +4.87% | +1.31% | High values and selective demand |
| of which Milan Hinterland | 42,028.64 | 42,127.97 | 45,422.82 | +7.82% | +8.08% | Expansion along the metro/suburban rail corridors |
| Brescia | 16,831.46 | 17,144.58 | 18,374.17 | +7.17% | +9.17% | Driven by industrial hubs and Lake Garda |
| Bergamo | 16,411.91 | 17,365.24 | 17,935.93 | +3.29% | +9.29% | Steady polycentric growth |
| Varese | 13,217.26 | 12,958.89 | 14,371.05 | +10.90% | +8.73% | Strong restart of the Malpensa/Busto axis |
| Como | 8,856.66 | 8,963.71 | 9,482.59 | +5.79% | +7.07% | Lario and cross-border appeal |
| Pavia | 8,208.98 | 8,524.00 | 9,330.41 | +9.46% | +13.66% | Record growth driven by accessibility |
| Mantua | 5,076.17 | 5,142.58 | 5,566.90 | +8.25% | +9.67% | Dominance of large floor areas |
| Cremona | 4,552.82 | 4,764.19 | 5,009.32 | +5.15% | +10.03% | Above the 5,000-sales threshold |
| Lecco | 4,607.96 | 4,583.77 | 4,915.49 | +7.24% | +6.67% | Resilience of the Brianza-Lake area |
| Lodi | 3,396.20 | 3,305.62 | 3,898.32 | +17.93% | +14.78% | Regional growth leader |
| Sondrio | 2,686.70 | 2,675.26 | 2,709.43 | +1.28% | +0.85% | Tourist-mountain stability |
| LOMBARDY (TOTAL) | 150,722.67 | 151,558.71 | 162,189.39 | +7.01% | +7.61% | Maturity and consolidation |
Source: official data, Italian Revenue Agency
3. The Four Local Trajectories for 2026
The analysis of territorial micro-data makes it possible to identify four well-defined geographic dynamics that will characterise the Lombardy market towards 2026:
1. Milan City: Mature Values and Selectivity
The Milan city market (25,172.96 NTN in 2025) recovered the natural decline of 2024 (24,002.90 NTN), stabilising at high volumes but with slower growth than the rest of the region (+1.31% over three years). The city market is confirmed as highly polarised between investments in small sizes (<50 sqm at 22.71%) and compact first-home purchases in the 50–85 sqm band (42.26%). For 2026 volumes traded are expected to remain stable, with further qualitative selectivity on highly energy-efficient properties.
2. Hinterland and Metropolitan Belt: The Axis of Expansion
The Milan Hinterland (45,422.82 NTN in 2025, equal to 64.34% of the entire metropolitan city) is the most dynamic market in the region in terms of volume absorption. Structured urban hubs such as Sesto San Giovanni (1,539.64 NTN), Cinisello Balsamo (1,020.83 NTN), Rho (892.73 NTN), San Donato, Cernusco and Legnano lead a process of mature suburbanisation, in which buyers seek a balance between housing quality, green spaces and fast connection with the metropolitan centre.
3. The Large Polycentric Markets of East and North Lombardy
Brescia (18,374.17 NTN) and Bergamo (17,935.93 NTN) are confirmed as the two property giants of the region behind Milan, together covering over 22.39% of Lombardy transactions. The solidity of their manufacturing districts, together with the presence of major university and healthcare catchment areas, ensures these territories robust internal demand. Similar dynamism is found in the pre-Alpine hub of Varese (14,371.05 NTN) and in the Lario area of Como and Lecco (14,398.08 NTN combined), where the residential sector is intertwined with tourist appeal and cross-border influence.
4. The Provinces with High Percentage Growth: Lodi, Pavia and the Southern Po Plain
Lodi (+14.78% over three years, 3,898.32 NTN) and Pavia (+13.66%, 9,330.41 NTN) rank at the top of the region for growth rate of sales. In these territories, together with Mantua (5,566.90 NTN) and Cremona (5,009.32 NTN), the availability of medium-large floor areas at accessible unit values continues to attract families from the metropolitan area. In these provinces, over 60-70% of the market concerns properties with a floor area above 85 sqm.
4. Guidelines for Reading the Data
- For those analysing first-home supply: The 50–115 sqm segment continues to be the backbone of the Lombardy market (over 61% of transactions). The presence of fast transport links is the key factor determining how far demand moves from the metropolitan areas towards provincial centres.
- For those monitoring the rental and investment sector: The concentration of micro-sizes (<50 sqm) in centres with a strong university and business vocation (Milan at 22.71%, Sondrio at 18.58% for tourist use) highlights markets with purchase logics and parameters that differ from traditional residential areas.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
* In the official data of the Italian Revenue Agency, the municipalities of the province of Monza and Brianza are included in the province of Milan: the figures for the province of Milan and the Milan Hinterland therefore also include Monza and Brianza.
How many residential sales were recorded in Lombardy in 2025?
In 2025 162,189.39 residential sales (NTN) were recorded across Lombardy, an increase of +7.01% on 2024 and +7.61% on 2023.
Which Lombardy province grew most over 2023-2025?
The province of Lodi recorded the highest percentage growth in the region, with an increase of +14.78% over three years (from 3,396.20 to 3,898.32 NTN), followed by the province of Pavia (+13.66%).
How are sales distributed between Milan city and its Hinterland?
In the Metropolitan City of Milan (70,595.78 NTN in 2025), the city absorbs 35.66% of sales (25,172.96 NTN), while the Hinterland covers the majority share of 64.34% (45,422.82 NTN).
Informative article based on the official data of the Italian Revenue Agency (NTN 2023-2025).