The first-home market for young people and families in Lombardy: the polarisation between the city and the province
Official data, Italian Revenue Agency
In the Lombardy property landscape, demand for the purchase of a first home by young couples, single workers and growing families is the backbone of the entire residential market. The analysis of the official data on sales (Normalised Number of Transactions - NTN) for 2023, 2024 and 2025 shows how the size bands between 50 and 115 square metres — typically corresponding to large one-bedroom flats and two-bedroom flats — generated 100,310.69 sales in 2025, equal to 61.85% of all residential transactions in the region (162,189.39 NTN).
However, reading the territorial data brings out a marked geographic polarisation: while in Milan city the high level of unit prices compresses the choices of young people and families onto the 50–85 sqm band (often seen as a bridge or compromise solution), in the Hinterland* and the provinces family demand finds a natural outlet in large two-bedroom flats (85–115 sqm) and detached homes.
1. Overall Data for the Three Years (2023–2025): Over 100,000 Homes for the Residential Target
Floor areas between 50 and 115 sqm are the beating heart of sales intended as a main home. During the phase of fluctuating interest rates in 2024, this segment showed greater resilience than other floor areas, then accelerated decisively in 2025.
Evolution of 50–115 sqm sales in Lombardy:
| 2023 (of which 53,458.75 between 50–85 sqm and 40,468.89 between 85–115 sqm) | 93,927.64 NTN (equal to 62.32% of the regional total) |
| 2024 (of which 53,593.02 between 50–85 sqm and 40,643.23 between 85–115 sqm) | 94,236.25 NTN (equal to 62.18% of the regional total; +0.33% on 2023) |
| 2025 (of which 56,476.93 between 50–85 sqm and 43,833.76 between 85–115 sqm) | 100,310.69 NTN (equal to 61.85% of the regional total; +6.45% on 2024 and +6.80% on 2023) |
Source: official data, Italian Revenue Agency
In three years, purchases in the central floor area bands grew by +6,383.05 transactions a year, confirming the central role of primary housing needs in the regional economy.
2. The Polarisation between Milan City and the Province
The difference in economic accessibility generates clearly polarised purchasing behaviour between Milan city and its wider province.
Milan City: High prices and concentration on 50–85 sqm
In the municipality of Milan, where the average price per square metre reaches the regional peak, the first-home segment is largely concentrated on the 50–85 sqm band, which covers 42.26% of city sales (10,638.00 NTN in 2025). The 85–115 sqm band (large two-bedroom/compact three-bedroom flat) is instead heavily penalised by absolute costs, stopping at 20.08% (5,054.66 NTN). Many young families, unable to access adequately sized two-bedroom flats in the city, are pushed to move their search to the municipalities of the urban belt.
Hinterland and Provinces: Expansion towards Two-Bedroom Flats and Large Floor Areas
Moving into the Milan Hinterland and the surrounding provinces (Lodi, Pavia, Bergamo, Brescia), the structure of sales changes radically:
- Milan Hinterland: The 85–115 sqm band rises to 30.02% of sales (13,636.65 NTN in 2025), while floor areas above 115 sqm cover 22.27% of the market (10,116.49 NTN).
- Provinces of Lodi and Pavia: The 85–115 sqm band absorbs 30.11% (Lodi) and 26.65% (Pavia) of sales respectively, with a considerable presence of detached homes above 115 sqm (27.73% in Lodi, 34.01% in Pavia).
Comparative Table: Size Choices for Families (Year 2025)
The following table shows the distribution of sales in the key bands for young people and families in the different territorial areas of Lombardy:
| Area | Band 50–85 sqm (NTN) | % of local total | Band 85–115 sqm (NTN) | % of local total | Total 50–115 sqm (NTN) | Combined % 50–115 sqm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milan city | 10,638.00 | 42.26% | 5,054.66 | 20.08% | 15,692.66 | 62.34% |
| Milan Hinterland | 17,778.01 | 39.14% | 13,636.65 | 30.02% | 31,414.66 | 69.16% |
| Province of Bergamo | 5,340.18 | 29.77% | 5,257.49 | 29.31% | 10,597.67 | 59.09% |
| Province of Brescia | 5,406.13 | 29.42% | 4,793.97 | 26.09% | 10,200.10 | 55.51% |
| Province of Varese | 4,583.34 | 31.89% | 3,997.46 | 27.82% | 8,580.80 | 59.71% |
| Province of Como | 3,160.82 | 33.33% | 2,639.70 | 27.84% | 5,800.52 | 61.17% |
| Province of Pavia | 3,047.44 | 32.66% | 2,486.56 | 26.65% | 5,534.00 | 59.31% |
| Province of Lodi | 1,373.32 | 35.23% | 1,173.84 | 30.11% | 2,547.16 | 65.34% |
| Lombardy (Total) | 56,476.93 | 34.82% | 43,833.76 | 27.03% | 100,310.69 | 61.85% |
Source: official data, Italian Revenue Agency
3. Emerging Trends in the First-Home Segment
Three fundamental dynamics characterising the behaviour of young people and families in the Lombardy market emerge from the three-year data:
- The "Doubling of the Radius" phenomenon: To keep the desired floor area (two-bedroom flat with a second bathroom or space for remote working), young families living or working in Milan tend to move along the rail and motorway routes towards hubs such as Sesto San Giovanni, Rho, San Donato, Monza, Cernusco sul Naviglio and Lodi Vecchio.
- The value of outdoor liveability: In provincial centres, first-home purchases are strongly oriented towards residential complexes with private terraces or gardens, which explains the growth of sales in the 85–115 sqm band and in single-family homes.
- Pressure on rates and the 2025 recovery: After the caution recorded in 2024 coinciding with peak mortgage rates, the recovery of access to credit in 2025 unlocked latent demand, pushing first-home transactions to the highest level of the three years.
Summary observations on the data
- For those analysing urban dynamics: The marked difference between the city and the province confirms that access to family floor areas (above 85 sqm) is now mainly outside the city in the Milan metropolitan area.
- For those monitoring property supply: More than 61% of regional sales are concentrated on floor areas between 50 and 115 sqm, confirming how the availability of renovated or highly energy-efficient properties in this band is the main factor of market fluidity.
FAQ – Frequently Asked Questions on the First-Home Market in Lombardy
* In the official data of the Italian Revenue Agency, the municipalities of the province of Monza and Brianza are included in the province of Milan: the figures for the province of Milan and the Milan Hinterland therefore also include Monza and Brianza.
How many homes between 50 and 115 sqm were sold in Lombardy in 2025?
In 2025 100,310.69 sales were recorded in the 50–115 sqm band, equal to 61.85% of the entire regional residential market.
What is the floor area most purchased by families in Milan city?
In Milan city the most traded band is 50–85 sqm (42.26% of sales), while the large two-bedroom flat (85–115 sqm) stops at 20.08% because of the high cost per square metre.
Where are sales of two-bedroom flats above 85 sqm concentrated?
Two-bedroom and three-bedroom flats above 85 sqm record the highest shares in the Milan Hinterland (30.02%), the province of Lodi (30.11%) and the province of Bergamo (29.31%).
Informative article based on the official data of the Italian Revenue Agency (NTN 2023-2025).